Danny Crichton

All articles from this personal site as well as other locations like "Securities" by Lux Capital and TechCrunch.

Below, check out my 2024 articles.

To see articles from prior years, click through to 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, and 2013 and prior pages.

2024

December

• 2024-12-14: Introducing our new scenario, “Powering Up” (Lux Capital)
• 2024-12-14: Riskgaming: Launching “Powering Up” on China EVs (Lux Capital)
• 2024-12-07: Riskgaming: Tail Risks (Lux Capital)
• 2024-12-06: Why does America have the most expensive elevators in the world? (Lux Capital)

November

• 2024-11-27: The Titanic Lessons of VC with Josh Wolfe (Lux Capital)
• 2024-11-23: Riskgaming: DeepSeek, Northvolt and Bitcoin (Lux Capital)
• 2024-11-21: The Orthogonal Bet: Dave Jilk on AI, Poetry, and the Future of AGI (Lux Capital)
• 2024-11-18: Elections, global threats and happy hour with the Riskgaming team (Lux Capital)
• 2024-11-16: Riskgaming: Pragmatic Powers (Lux Capital)
• 2024-11-15: The future of defense manufacturing with Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf (Lux Capital)
• 2024-11-14: The Orthogonal Bet: Embracing Second Acts (Lux Capital)
• 2024-11-09: Riskgaming: What’s Next? (Lux Capital)
• 2024-11-08: The energy economics of our civilization’s digital cathedrals (Lux Capital)
• 2024-11-06: The Orthogonal Bet: How deep science ventures redefines deep tech innovation (Lux Capital)
• 2024-11-02: Riskgaming: Introducing our new scenario, DeepFaked and DeepSixed (Lux Capital)
• 2024-11-02: DeepFaked and DeepSixed: AI Election Security and the Future of Democracy (Lux Capital)
• 2024-11-02: Introducing our new scenario, DeepFaked and DeepSixed (Lux Capital)

October

• 2024-10-30: The Orthogonal Bet: Exploring the history of intelligence (Lux Capital)
• 2024-10-26: Riskgaming: Fixing American Science (Lux Capital)
• 2024-10-25: Previewing our upcoming Riskgaming scenario, “Powering Up: China’s Global Quest for Electric Vehicle Dominance” (Lux Capital)
• 2024-10-23: The Orthogonal Bet: The role of complexity in world-building (Lux Capital)
• 2024-10-19: Riskgaming: The Power of Games (Lux Capital)
• 2024-10-18: The dangers of our rapidly narrowing understanding of China (Lux Capital)
• 2024-10-16: The Orthogonal Bet: The Wonders of Graph Paper and Algorithmic Art (Lux Capital)
• 2024-10-12: Riskgaming: Introducing Laurence Pevsner (Lux Capital)
• 2024-10-11: Even with China’s rise, America’s best days are ahead (Lux Capital)
• 2024-10-10: The Orthogonal Bet: Complex economics is applying complex systems methods (Lux Capital)
• 2024-10-05: Riskgaming: The Future of AI (Lux Capital)
• 2024-10-02: The Orthogonal Bet: Artificial Life and Robotic Evolution (Lux Capital)
• 2024-10-01: From Satellites to Submarines: The Power of Open Source Intelligence in Global Conflict (Lux Capital)

September

• 2024-09-28: Riskgaming: Soft and Hard Landings (Lux Capital)
• 2024-09-27: Josh Wolfe: Our new world order is one where algorithms can wield as much influence as armies (Lux Capital)
• 2024-09-25: The Orthogonal Bet: From Online Communities to In-Person Programming (Lux Capital)
• 2024-09-21: The how and why of the most successful supply-chain attack in history (Lux Capital)
• 2024-09-21: Riskgaming: “Founder Mode” is really Survivor Mode (Lux Capital)
• 2024-09-18: The Orthogonal Bet: The Art of Naming (Lux Capital)
• 2024-09-17: United States of Algorithms (City Journal)
• 2024-09-16: AI is spiking chip design costs – can it solve them too? (Lux Capital)
• 2024-09-14: Riskgaming: The Productivity Precipice (Lux Capital)
• 2024-09-12: The Orthogonal Bet: How to Navigate Complexity Within a Large Organization (Lux Capital)
• 2024-09-07: Riskgaming: A Xenotransplantation Future (Lux Capital)
• 2024-09-06: Silicon Valley’s secret industrial spy war (Lux Capital)
• 2024-09-05: The Orthogonal Bet: Bio Trajectories and the Importance of Long-Term Thinking (Lux Capital)

August

• 2024-08-31: Riskgaming: Lux LP Letter (Q2 of 2024) (Lux Capital)
• 2024-08-30: How games, god(s) and chance transformed human decision-making (Lux Capital)
• 2024-08-29: The Orthogonal Bet: The Harsh Realities of the Soviet Space Program (Lux Capital)
• 2024-08-24: Riskgaming: The Broken Leg Problem of VC (Lux Capital)
• 2024-08-23: The Orthogonal Bet: Understanding Embodied Intelligence (Lux Capital)
• 2024-08-21: Radical Uncertainty, Rapid Learning and the Success Equation for Catching Up (Lux Capital)
• 2024-08-17: Riskgaming: Hacking Priomoridal Soups (Lux Capital)
• 2024-08-16: The Orthogonal Bet: The Quest to Build the Fruitful Web (Lux Capital)
• 2024-08-15: Industrial literacy and the fate of American progress (Lux Capital)
• 2024-08-10: Riskgaming: Chaos, Chaos on the Wall… (Lux Capital)
• 2024-08-09: The Orthogonal Bet: : The Art of Cultivating Curiosity (Lux Capital)
• 2024-08-08: Why engineers are using chaos to make computers more resilient (Lux Capital)
• 2024-08-03: Riskgaming: The looming labor crisis in chip design (Lux Capital)
• 2024-08-02: The Orthogonal Bet: Building a Fractal Combinatorial Trope Machine (Lux Capital)

July

• 2024-07-31: How many trillions in damage would an invasion of Taiwan cost global GDP? (Lux Capital)
• 2024-07-27: Riskgaming: Driving through China (Lux Capital)
• 2024-07-26: The Orthogonal Bet: Using Computational Biology to Understand How the Brain Works (Lux Capital)
• 2024-07-24: Evolved Technology: Why technology is counter-intuitively pushing us back to natural products in pharma development (Lux Capital)
• 2024-07-20: Riskgaming: The British Invasion Edition (Lux Capital)
• 2024-07-19: The Orthogonal Bet: What the Microsoft Outage Reveals (Lux Capital)
• 2024-07-19: The Orthogonal Bet: The Quest to Find the Poetic Web (Lux Capital)
• 2024-07-17: Pivoting to the Expert Economy (Lux Capital)
• 2024-07-13: Riskgaming: America’s mollycoddled industries (Lux Capital)
• 2024-07-12: The Orthogonal Bet: What AI Can Learn from Human Cognition (Lux Capital)
• 2024-07-10: Can we be optimistic about America’s future? (Lux Capital)
• 2024-07-06: Riskgaming: America’s 248th (Lux Capital)
• 2024-07-05: The Orthogonal Bet: Unveiling the Complexity of Life: A Conversation with Philip Ball on ‘How Life Works' (Lux Capital)
• 2024-07-03: “The commons are under attack” from TikTok and subsea cables to data centers and elections (Lux Capital)

June

• 2024-06-29: Riskgaming: America’s reindustrialization dilemma (Lux Capital)
• 2024-06-28: The Orthogonal Bet: How to fund R&D that is for the public good? (Lux Capital)
• 2024-06-25: Is AI killing journalism? Pitchforks, Perplexity and reporters yelling “Boo!” (Lux Capital)
• 2024-06-22: Riskgaming: Protecting America’s Economic Security (Lux Capital)
• 2024-06-21: The Orthogonal Bet: SimCity, Maxis and the ambitious modeling of everything (Lux Capital)
• 2024-06-15: Riskgaming: AI and the Death of Human Languages (Lux Capital)
• 2024-06-14: Why high-throughput bio research needs better tools immediately (Lux Capital)
• 2024-06-08: Riskgaming: The closing door to global tech riches (Lux Capital)
• 2024-06-07: The Orthogonal Bet: Novelist Robin Sloan’s Love for Books with Maps on the First Page (Lux Capital)
• 2024-06-01: Riskgaming: Remains of the Day (June 1, 2024) (Lux Capital)

May

• 2024-05-31: How Applied Intuition used the Valley’s hardest lessons to upgrade automotive with autonomy (Lux Capital)
• 2024-05-24: Orthogonal Bet: A technology vibe shift from utopian Star Trek to absurdist Douglas Adams? (Lux Capital)
• 2024-05-18: Riskgaming: Strait to Taiwan (Lux Capital)
• 2024-05-17: The soon-to-be-solved protein problem that will accelerate drug discovery (Lux Capital)
• 2024-05-11: Riskgaming: Napa Nights (Lux Capital)
• 2024-05-04: Riskgaming: Sacrifice and the Future of America (Lux Capital)
• 2024-05-03: Margaret Mead and the psychedelic community that theorized AI (Lux Capital)

April

• 2024-04-27: Riskgaming: The Great Talent Dividend and NYC’s AI Opportunity (Lux Capital)
• 2024-04-26: The nightmare specter of designer bioweapons and the people trying to stop them (Lux Capital)
• 2024-04-20: Riskgaming: Launching Lux Capital’s boldest initiative yet (Lux Capital)
• 2024-04-20: Hampton at the Cross-Roads (Lux Capital)
• 2024-04-16: Lux and the Art of Startup Maintenance (Lux Capital)
• 2024-04-13: “Securities” by Lux Capital: Pacific Stratagems (Lux Capital)
• 2024-04-12: The Zone of Totality with Sam Arbesman (Lux Capital)
• 2024-04-06: “Securities” by Lux Capital: brAIn drAIn (Lux Capital)

March

• 2024-03-30: “Securities” by Lux Capital: Information Combustion (Lux Capital)
• 2024-03-23: “Securities” by Lux Capital: Democratizing WMD (Lux Capital)
• 2024-03-16: “Securities” by Lux Capital: Sigma Narratives (Lux Capital)
• 2024-03-15: Biology is becoming engineering and not just science (Lux Capital)
• 2024-03-08: “Securities” by Lux Capital: TikTok Tantrum (Lux Capital)
• 2024-03-07: The three revolutions in astrobiology and the search for extraterrestrial life (Lux Capital)

February

• 2024-02-24: “Securities” by Lux Capital: Pivotal Pivots (Lux Capital)
• 2024-02-21: “I am basically a cosmic Fluke” and the chaos of science, policy, and human narratives (Lux Capital)
• 2024-02-17: “Securities” by Lux Capital: Sakana, Subways, and Share Buybacks (Lux Capital)
• 2024-02-14: How an anonymous blog during the neural network winter led to Japan’s national AI champion (Lux Capital)
• 2024-02-10: “Securities” by Lux Capital: Impoverished Valuations (Lux Capital)
• 2024-02-08: The most wasteful infrastructure megaproject that wasn’t (Lux Capital)
• 2024-02-03: “Securities” by Lux Capital: TechCrunch+ Termination (Lux Capital)
• 2024-02-02: The stove hasn’t changed in decades. It’s time to upgrade. (Lux Capital)

January

• 2024-01-27: “Securities” by Lux Capital: Human Martians (Lux Capital)
• 2024-01-24: Astronauts all lie, but the biggest lie is that we will colonize Mars (Zach Weinersmith, Part 1 of 2) (Lux Capital)
• 2024-01-24: Why a Mars settlement could never be a libertarian paradise (Zach Weinersmith, Part 2 of 2) (Lux Capital)
• 2024-01-20: “Securities” by Lux Capital: DC, Japan, and Space (Lux Capital)
• 2024-01-18: DC to Silicon Valley: Drop Dead (City Journal)
• 2024-01-17: How Impulse Space’s Helios will democratize access to Earth’s farthest orbits (Lux Capital)
• 2024-01-16: Why Tokyo’s Sakana AI is pioneering a new vanguard of national AI foundation models (Lux Capital)
• 2024-01-13: “Securities” by Lux Capital: MLK Jr. Memorial (Lux Capital)
• 2024-01-06: “Securities” by Lux Capital: Hochul Hokum (Lux Capital)